FA Siauliai
Dziugas Telsiai
The model leans Dziugas Telsiai at 39%. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 1.22, Dziugas Telsiai 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6; Dziugas Telsiai won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FA Siauliai | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Dziugas Telsiai | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dziugas Telsiai. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FA Siauliai 0| FA Siauliai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.