Zalgiris Vilnius
Dziugas Telsiai
The model leans Zalgiris Vilnius at 41%. Expected goals: Zalgiris Vilnius 1.44, Dziugas Telsiai 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Zalgiris Vilnius won 4 of their last 6; Dziugas Telsiai won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zalgiris Vilnius | 44% | 2.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Dziugas Telsiai | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zalgiris Vilnius. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.44 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zalgiris Vilnius −0.5| Zalgiris Vilnius line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.