Dziugas Telsiai
Zalgiris Vilnius
The model leans Zalgiris Vilnius at 36%. Expected goals: Dziugas Telsiai 1.21, Zalgiris Vilnius 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. Dziugas Telsiai won 1 of their last 6; Zalgiris Vilnius won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dziugas Telsiai | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Zalgiris Vilnius | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zalgiris Vilnius. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dziugas Telsiai 0| Dziugas Telsiai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.