FK Panevezys
Dziugas Telsiai
The model leans Dziugas Telsiai at 39%. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.31, Dziugas Telsiai 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6; Dziugas Telsiai won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Panevezys | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Dziugas Telsiai | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dziugas Telsiai. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Panevezys 0| FK Panevezys line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 22% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.