FA Siauliai
Hegelmann
The model leans Hegelmann at 32%. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 1.32, Hegelmann 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6; Hegelmann won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FA Siauliai | 35% | 2.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Hegelmann | 36% | 2.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hegelmann. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 37% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FA Siauliai 0| FA Siauliai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.