Hegelmann
Banga Gargzdai
The model leans Banga Gargzdai at 39%. Expected goals: Hegelmann 0.87, Banga Gargzdai 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. Hegelmann won 1 of their last 6; Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hegelmann | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Banga Gargzdai | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Banga Gargzdai. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Banga Gargzdai −0.5| Hegelmann line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 30% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.