Banga Gargzdai
Hegelmann
The model leans Banga Gargzdai at 50%. Expected goals: Banga Gargzdai 1.36, Hegelmann 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%. Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6; Hegelmann won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Banga Gargzdai | 49% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Hegelmann | 20% | 4.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Banga Gargzdai. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.36 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.8%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Banga Gargzdai −0.5| Banga Gargzdai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.