Suduva
Hegelmann
The model leans Suduva at 50%. Expected goals: Suduva 1.46, Hegelmann 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. Suduva won 5 of their last 6; Hegelmann won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Suduva | 50% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Hegelmann | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Suduva. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Suduva −0.5| Suduva line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 25% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.