Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

FA Siauliai

13
Won

FK TransINVEST

The model leans FK TransINVEST at 51%. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 1.16, FK TransINVEST 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6; FK TransINVEST won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FA Siauliai21%4.78
XDraw24%4.23
2FK TransINVEST55%1.80

Pick: FK TransINVEST. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.98
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 119.9%
  • 129.8%
  • 018.6%
  • 028.5%
  • 136.5%
  • 215.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FK TransINVEST −1
FA Siauliai lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.58%92%
-18%13%78%
-0.522%78%
022%22%56%
+0.544%56%
+144%23%33%
+1.567%33%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.