Dziugas Telsiai
FK Kauno Zalgiris
The model leans FK Kauno Zalgiris at 50%. Expected goals: Dziugas Telsiai 1.04, FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Dziugas Telsiai won 1 of their last 6; FK Kauno Zalgiris won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dziugas Telsiai | 22% | 4.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.81 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Kauno Zalgiris | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Kauno Zalgiris. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–06.7%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Kauno Zalgiris −0.5| Dziugas Telsiai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.