FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Panevezys
The model leans FK Kauno Zalgiris at 62%. Expected goals: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2.37, FK Panevezys 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%. FK Kauno Zalgiris won 3 of their last 6; FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Kauno Zalgiris | 70% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.33 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Panevezys | 11% | 9.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Kauno Zalgiris. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.37 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 3–08.8%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Kauno Zalgiris −1.5| FK Kauno Zalgiris line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.