Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

FK Kauno Zalgiris

30
Won

FK Panevezys

The model leans FK Kauno Zalgiris at 62%. Expected goals: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2.37, FK Panevezys 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%. FK Kauno Zalgiris won 3 of their last 6; FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FK Kauno Zalgiris70%1.42
XDraw19%5.33
2FK Panevezys11%9.14

Pick: FK Kauno Zalgiris. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.37 – 0.85
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.562%38%
3.540%60%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 2011.2%
  • 219.6%
  • 109.4%
  • 308.8%
  • 118.1%
  • 317.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FK Kauno Zalgiris −1.5
FK Kauno Zalgiris lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.548%52%
-148%23%29%
-0.571%29%
071%17%12%
+0.588%12%
+188%8%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.