FK Kauno Zalgiris
FA Siauliai
The model leans FK Kauno Zalgiris at 61%. Expected goals: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2.26, FA Siauliai 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 50%. FK Kauno Zalgiris won 3 of their last 6; FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Kauno Zalgiris | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.13 | – | – | – |
| 2FA Siauliai | 11% | 9.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Kauno Zalgiris. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Kauno Zalgiris −1.5| FK Kauno Zalgiris line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.