Orange County SC
FC Tulsa
The model leans Orange County SC at 29%. Expected goals: Orange County SC 1.05, FC Tulsa 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. Orange County SC won 2 of their last 6; FC Tulsa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orange County SC | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Tulsa | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orange County SC. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 67%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–112.9%
- 0–012.5%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orange County SC 0| Orange County SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 30% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.