Monterey Bay FC
Orange County SC
The model leans Orange County SC at 45%. Expected goals: Monterey Bay FC 0.99, Orange County SC 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Monterey Bay FC won 0 of their last 6; Orange County SC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterey Bay FC | 24% | 4.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Orange County SC | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orange County SC. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.1%
- 1–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orange County SC −0.5| Monterey Bay FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.