Monterey Bay FC
New Mexico United
The model leans New Mexico United at 37%. Expected goals: Monterey Bay FC 1.29, New Mexico United 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Monterey Bay FC won 0 of their last 6; New Mexico United won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterey Bay FC | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2New Mexico United | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: New Mexico United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monterey Bay FC 0| Monterey Bay FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.