El Paso Locomotive FC
Monterey Bay FC
The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 63%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 2.82, Monterey Bay FC 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 63%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; Monterey Bay FC won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Paso Locomotive FC | 73% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Monterey Bay FC | 11% | 8.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.82 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–07.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 4–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −1.5| El Paso Locomotive FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.