Monterey Bay FC
Sacramento Republic FC
The model leans Sacramento Republic FC at 50%. Expected goals: Monterey Bay FC 0.69, Sacramento Republic FC 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Monterey Bay FC won 0 of their last 6; Sacramento Republic FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterey Bay FC | 17% | 6.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Sacramento Republic FC | 54% | 1.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sacramento Republic FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.2%
- 0–212.4%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sacramento Republic FC −0.5| Monterey Bay FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.