Sacramento Republic FC
Phoenix Rising FC
The model leans Sacramento Republic FC at 43%. Expected goals: Sacramento Republic FC 1.24, Phoenix Rising FC 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 62%. Sacramento Republic FC won 3 of their last 6; Phoenix Rising FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sacramento Republic FC | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Phoenix Rising FC | 21% | 4.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sacramento Republic FC. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.1%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sacramento Republic FC −0.5| Sacramento Republic FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.