Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage
Phoenix Rising FC
2–1
Won
Indy Eleven
The model leans Phoenix Rising FC at 51%. Expected goals: Phoenix Rising FC 1.87, Indy Eleven 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match57
25
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Phoenix Rising FC | 57% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Indy Eleven | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Phoenix Rising FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Phoenix Rising FC −1| Phoenix Rising FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 24% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.