Las Vegas Lights FC
Phoenix Rising FC
The model leans Phoenix Rising FC at 41%. Expected goals: Las Vegas Lights FC 1.08, Phoenix Rising FC 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Las Vegas Lights FC won 3 of their last 6; Phoenix Rising FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Las Vegas Lights FC | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Phoenix Rising FC | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Phoenix Rising FC. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 0–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Phoenix Rising FC −0.5| Las Vegas Lights FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.