Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage
Las Vegas Lights FC
2–1
Won
Brooklyn
The model leans Las Vegas Lights FC at 50%. Expected goals: Las Vegas Lights FC 1.72, Brooklyn 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match53
26
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Las Vegas Lights FC | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Brooklyn | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Las Vegas Lights FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–16.6%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Las Vegas Lights FC −0.5| Las Vegas Lights FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.