Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage
Louisville City FC
2–2
Lost
Brooklyn
The model leans Louisville City FC at 69%. Expected goals: Louisville City FC 3.03, Brooklyn 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match81
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Louisville City FC | 81% | 1.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Brooklyn | 6% | 15.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Louisville City FC. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.03 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 3–09.9%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–07.5%
- 1–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Louisville City FC −2| Louisville City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| -1 | 63% | 19% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.