Louisville City FC
Lexington SC
The model leans Louisville City FC at 55%. Expected goals: Louisville City FC 2.24, Lexington SC 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%. Louisville City FC won 2 of their last 6; Lexington SC won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Louisville City FC | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Lexington SC | 16% | 6.44 | – | – | – |
Pick: Louisville City FC. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.24 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 1–18.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.3%
- 3–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Louisville City FC −1| Louisville City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.