Tampa Bay Rowdies
Louisville City FC
The model leans Tampa Bay Rowdies at 50%. Expected goals: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.89, Louisville City FC 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tampa Bay Rowdies | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Louisville City FC | 21% | 4.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tampa Bay Rowdies. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tampa Bay Rowdies −0.5| Tampa Bay Rowdies line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.