Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage
Orange County SC
0–3
Won
Tampa Bay Rowdies
The model leans Tampa Bay Rowdies at 38%. Expected goals: Orange County SC 1.03, Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match29
31
40
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orange County SC | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Tampa Bay Rowdies | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tampa Bay Rowdies. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orange County SC 0| Orange County SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.