Orange County SC
El Paso Locomotive FC
The model leans Orange County SC at 50%. Expected goals: Orange County SC 1.93, El Paso Locomotive FC 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. Orange County SC won 2 of their last 6; El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orange County SC | 51% | 1.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| 2El Paso Locomotive FC | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orange County SC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.4%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orange County SC −0.5| Orange County SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.