El Paso Locomotive FC
Oakland Roots SC
The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 50%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 2.28, Oakland Roots SC 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Paso Locomotive FC | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Oakland Roots SC | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.28 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.0%
- 2–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −0.5| El Paso Locomotive FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.