Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage

El Paso Locomotive FC

10
Won

Oakland Roots SC

The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 50%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 2.28, Oakland Roots SC 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1El Paso Locomotive FC53%1.89
XDraw22%4.64
2Oakland Roots SC26%3.91

Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.28 – 1.57
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.554%46%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 218.7%
  • 117.6%
  • 226.8%
  • 316.6%
  • 126.0%
  • 205.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −0.5
El Paso Locomotive FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%21%46%
-0.554%46%
054%20%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%14%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.