Oakland Roots SC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
The model leans Oakland Roots SC at 36%. Expected goals: Oakland Roots SC 1.23, Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6; Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oakland Roots SC | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Oakland Roots SC. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Oakland Roots SC 0| Oakland Roots SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.