Oakland Roots SC
Orange County SC
The model leans Oakland Roots SC at 38%. Expected goals: Oakland Roots SC 1.43, Orange County SC 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6; Orange County SC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oakland Roots SC | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Orange County SC | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Oakland Roots SC. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 37% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Oakland Roots SC 0| Oakland Roots SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.