Orange County SC
Louisville City FC
The model leans Orange County SC at 36%. Expected goals: Orange County SC 1.43, Louisville City FC 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Orange County SC won 2 of their last 6; Louisville City FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orange County SC | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Louisville City FC | 35% | 2.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orange County SC. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orange County SC 0| Orange County SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.