Louisville City FC
San Antonio FC
The model leans Louisville City FC at 51%. Expected goals: Louisville City FC 1.93, San Antonio FC 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Louisville City FC won 2 of their last 6; San Antonio FC won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Louisville City FC | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2San Antonio FC | 19% | 5.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Louisville City FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–16.4%
- 3–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Louisville City FC −1| Louisville City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.