El Paso Locomotive FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 39%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 1.51, Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Paso Locomotive FC | 41% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC 0| El Paso Locomotive FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.