Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage

El Paso Locomotive FC

41
Won

Loudoun United FC

The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 60%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 2.62, Loudoun United FC 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1El Paso Locomotive FC68%1.48
XDraw18%5.52
2Loudoun United FC14%7.01

Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.62 – 1.17
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.552%48%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 219.1%
  • 317.9%
  • 207.8%
  • 116.9%
  • 306.8%
  • 105.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −1.5
El Paso Locomotive FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.547%53%
-147%21%32%
-0.568%32%
068%17%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%9%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.