FC Tulsa
Lexington SC
The model leans FC Tulsa at 51%. Expected goals: FC Tulsa 1.67, Lexington SC 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. FC Tulsa won 3 of their last 6; Lexington SC won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tulsa | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Lexington SC | 16% | 6.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tulsa. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.7%
- 3–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tulsa −1| FC Tulsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.