FC Tulsa
Detroit City FC
The model leans FC Tulsa at 43%. Expected goals: FC Tulsa 1.09, Detroit City FC 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. FC Tulsa won 3 of their last 6; Detroit City FC won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tulsa | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Detroit City FC | 19% | 5.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tulsa. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.3%
- 0–018.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tulsa −0.5| FC Tulsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 28% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 33% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.