Birmingham Legion FC
Detroit City FC
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Birmingham Legion FC 0.91, Detroit City FC 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%. Birmingham Legion FC won 1 of their last 6; Detroit City FC won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham Legion FC | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Detroit City FC | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.91 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–016.2%
- 1–014.8%
- 0–114.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–06.8%
- 0–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Birmingham Legion FC 0| Birmingham Legion FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 33% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 22% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.