Birmingham Legion FC
Sporting JAX
The model leans Birmingham Legion FC at 54%. Expected goals: Birmingham Legion FC 2.28, Sporting JAX 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%. Birmingham Legion FC won 1 of their last 6; Sporting JAX won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham Legion FC | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting JAX | 17% | 6.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Birmingham Legion FC. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.28 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.4%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Birmingham Legion FC −1| Birmingham Legion FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 22% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.