Sacramento Republic FC
Sporting JAX
The model leans Sacramento Republic FC at 67%. Expected goals: Sacramento Republic FC 2.38, Sporting JAX 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. Sacramento Republic FC won 3 of their last 6; Sporting JAX won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sacramento Republic FC | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting JAX | 7% | 14.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sacramento Republic FC. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.38 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 3–011.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sacramento Republic FC −1.5| Sacramento Republic FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 16% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.