El Paso Locomotive FC
Sporting JAX
The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 67%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 3.43, Sporting JAX 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 72%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; Sporting JAX won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Paso Locomotive FC | 76% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting JAX | 11% | 9.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.43 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.7%
- 2–16.7%
- 4–16.6%
- 3–05.7%
- 3–25.2%
- 2–05.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −2| El Paso Locomotive FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 17% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 7% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.