Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage

El Paso Locomotive FC

20
Won

Sporting JAX

The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 67%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 3.43, Sporting JAX 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 72%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; Sporting JAX won 1 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1El Paso Locomotive FC76%1.31
XDraw13%7.63
2Sporting JAX11%9.50

Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.43 – 1.34
LineOverUnder
1.595%5%
2.585%15%
3.570%30%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 317.7%
  • 216.7%
  • 416.6%
  • 305.7%
  • 325.2%
  • 205.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −2
El Paso Locomotive FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.559%41%
-159%17%23%
-0.577%23%
077%12%11%
+0.589%11%
+189%7%4%
+1.596%4%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.