Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage

Oakland Roots SC

13
Won

Sacramento Republic FC

The model leans Sacramento Republic FC at 37%. Expected goals: Oakland Roots SC 0.99, Sacramento Republic FC 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%. Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6; Sacramento Republic FC won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Oakland Roots SC30%3.38
XDraw32%3.12
2Sacramento Republic FC38%2.60

Pick: Sacramento Republic FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.16
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes43%No57%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.5%
  • 1113.4%
  • 0011.6%
  • 1011.5%
  • 027.9%
  • 127.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 57% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Oakland Roots SC 0
Oakland Roots SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.511%89%
-111%20%69%
-0.531%69%
031%29%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%23%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.