Sacramento Republic FC
Lexington SC
The model leans Sacramento Republic FC at 51%. Expected goals: Sacramento Republic FC 1.46, Lexington SC 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%. Sacramento Republic FC won 3 of their last 6; Lexington SC won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sacramento Republic FC | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Lexington SC | 15% | 6.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sacramento Republic FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.7%
- 2–012.9%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sacramento Republic FC −0.5| Sacramento Republic FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 27% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.