Birmingham Legion FC
FC Tulsa
The model leans FC Tulsa at 39%. Expected goals: Birmingham Legion FC 0.95, FC Tulsa 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Birmingham Legion FC won 1 of their last 6; FC Tulsa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Birmingham Legion FC | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Tulsa | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tulsa. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–28.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tulsa −0.5| Birmingham Legion FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.