Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage
FC Tulsa
1–0
Won
Rhode Island FC
The model leans FC Tulsa at 42%. Expected goals: FC Tulsa 1.24, Rhode Island FC 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match45
32
23
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tulsa | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Rhode Island FC | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tulsa. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.2%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tulsa −0.5| FC Tulsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.