FC Tulsa
El Paso Locomotive FC
The model leans FC Tulsa at 53%. Expected goals: FC Tulsa 2.09, El Paso Locomotive FC 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. FC Tulsa won 3 of their last 6; El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tulsa | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.46 | – | – | – |
| 2El Paso Locomotive FC | 17% | 5.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tulsa. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–16.9%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tulsa −1| FC Tulsa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.