New Mexico United
FC Tulsa
The model leans FC Tulsa at 40%. Expected goals: New Mexico United 0.98, FC Tulsa 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. New Mexico United won 5 of their last 6; FC Tulsa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1New Mexico United | 26% | 3.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Tulsa | 44% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Tulsa. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Tulsa −0.5| New Mexico United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 28% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.