El Paso Locomotive FC
New Mexico United
The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 51%. Expected goals: El Paso Locomotive FC 2.29, New Mexico United 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%. El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6; New Mexico United won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Paso Locomotive FC | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
| 2New Mexico United | 21% | 4.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.29 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.2%
- 1–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −1| El Paso Locomotive FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.