New Mexico United
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
The model leans New Mexico United at 36%. Expected goals: New Mexico United 1.43, Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. New Mexico United won 5 of their last 6; Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1New Mexico United | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: New Mexico United. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: New Mexico United 0| New Mexico United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.