Sacramento Republic FC
Rhode Island FC
The model leans Sacramento Republic FC at 40%. Expected goals: Sacramento Republic FC 1.08, Rhode Island FC 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sacramento Republic FC | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Rhode Island FC | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sacramento Republic FC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.6%
- 0–017.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sacramento Republic FC −0.5| Sacramento Republic FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.