Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage

San Antonio FC

12
Lost

Las Vegas Lights FC

The model leans San Antonio FC at 53%. Expected goals: San Antonio FC 1.79, Las Vegas Lights FC 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. San Antonio FC won 3 of their last 6; Las Vegas Lights FC won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1San Antonio FC60%1.68
XDraw25%4.00
2Las Vegas Lights FC15%6.48

Pick: San Antonio FC. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.79 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.4%
  • 2011.9%
  • 1110.8%
  • 219.6%
  • 007.5%
  • 307.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: San Antonio FC −1
San Antonio FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%26%39%
-0.561%39%
061%23%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%12%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.