Monterey Bay FC
El Paso Locomotive FC
The model leans El Paso Locomotive FC at 50%. Expected goals: Monterey Bay FC 1.48, El Paso Locomotive FC 2.07. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. Monterey Bay FC won 0 of their last 6; El Paso Locomotive FC won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterey Bay FC | 27% | 3.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2El Paso Locomotive FC | 50% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: El Paso Locomotive FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 2.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.3%
- 0–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Paso Locomotive FC −0.5| Monterey Bay FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 21% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.